turnings – The Gen X Files

The Seasons of Generations

I was really impressed with Jessie Newburn’s post about how children during the different “seasons” of the generational cycle. Her post on “The Terrible Octomommy” (Go and read it now!) does a great job of explaining how attitudes toward child-bearing and child-rearing have changed over the last 80 years. It inspired me to do a short video explanation of the concept. There will be more refined versions of this to follow, but this first one is meant to introduce the concept of the turnings and the children that are reared during each part of the cycle.

BTW, both Jessie (follow here on Twitter as @JessieX) and I use the generational research of William Strauss and Neil Howe as guides for our work. You can learn more about their research at Lifecourse.com. If you want a basic primer on the research you can look at my “Start Here” section.

How Generations Predict the Crisis will last until 2025

The cycle of generations in the US shows us the patterns of history. And those patterns predict that the crisis we are in will not be over until around 2025.

One of the most significant aspects of generational research for me is its predictive ability. The cycle of generations described by Neil Howe and William Strauss in their books (starting with “Generations“) has an amazing predictive ability. Their book “The Fourth Turning“, written in 1997, predicts many of the events we have seen in the last few years with amazing accuracy. But this is not astrology or soothsaying. The predictions are based in strong social science that shows how the character of generations creates specific changes in society. Information about turnings can also be found on the Lifecourse Website.

Howe and Strauss point out that there are four cycles in history, that they call “turnings”, which are very similar to the four seasons of the year. It begins with the “High”, similar to Spring, a period in which life is growing, the days are getting longer and optimism abounds. The last High in the US was between 1946 and 1964. The next turning is the “Awakening” which is like the Summer, a period where life flourishes in many forms, perhaps to the point that things are a bit out of control. Our last Awakening the Consciousness Revolution from 1995-1985 when everything our society was based on during the High was questioned. The third turning is the “Unraveling”, similar to the Fall, when life dies back, the days shorten and things feel chaotic and uncontrolled. The last Unraveling in the US were the Culture Wars from 1986-2005, when society fell apart as it answered the questions from the Consciousness Revolution. The fourth turning is the “Crisis” which is most like Winter. During the Crisis the seeds that have been planted in the fall must survive through the short, cold days and life is bleak and unforgiving. We are in the Crisis now, and it will likely last until 2025. Those that survive the Crisis will enjoy warmth and promise of the coming Spring/High.

The chart above shows the turnings since 1900 (click on the image to enlarge). The red line represents the “High” and “Low” of the cycle. At the top of the curve, there is maximum unity in society as well as a simple worldview. At the bottom there is maximum discord and a complex worldview.

Just like the cycles of the seasons, the turning are of a specific length. Most vary from 20-25 years in duration. Just like the seasons in nature, it is difficult to change the timing of the turnings because they are guided by a natural force. The natural force in play is the length of an average long human lifetime, 85 – 100 years (also known as a saeculum). This period is significant because it is the amount of time required for us to forget the lessons of previous generational cycles. The cycle makes a full revolution from the High through the Crisis (and then repeats).

So while it is possible financial crisis we are in will end soon, perhaps in the next few years, the larger crisis will last for at least 10-15 years (until 2025 or perhaps as early as 2020). Think back to our most recent historical example, the Crisis turning from 1929-1945. It began with the Great Depression. By the time that the Depression was “over” (in the late 1930’s) Europe was already marching toward WWII. Think of what the outlook must have seemed like in the late 1930’s. If you had managed to survive the Depression you were wary and protective. Although the economy was improving, there were much bigger storm clouds gathering on the horizon. And by 1939 it was clear that the Great Depression was nothing in comparison to what was coming in the War. The world looked very bleak indeed (just like the middle of winter), and few would have predicted the glory that was in store in 1945. We are in a similar period now, and we are building towards that climax which is still 10-15 years away.

The climax will be the final reconciliation of the Boomer (born 1943-1960) generation who play the role of prophets in our current cycle. The ideological battle for how society should look will be debated by the Boomers and fought by the Millennials (born 1982-200?). This was true in the last cycle when the Missionary generation led (Stalin and FDR) and the GI Generation fought (all the war heroes). Does this climax need to be a war? No, but the climax has always been a major war historically (WWII, Civil War, American Revolution, Glorious Revolution, etc..)

I see this coming war taking one of two shapes. It will either be a war against Global Warming/Peak Oil/Water Shortage and other threats to our living environment, or it will be a battle against another nation or group of nations (Arab or Chinese being most likely). I would prefer the former, but as a Generation X’er I have little influence. Fortunately, there is one person in my generation does have some influence on this direction, and his name is Barack Obama (no guarantee that he will have the answer either).

The good news is that society will pull together during this crisis and we will forge a new direction for our entire country (and perhaps world) before it is over. That is how the next High will arise, but it will be a long time before it arrives. Although our situation may seem dire, it will be useful to be aware of the fundamental changes happening in our society as we face this immense struggle. And, as I have said many times, it will require a huge effort from all the living generations who must work together despite their different views.

If you want a primer on the research of William Strauss and Neil Howe, see my “start here” section.

[I put a comment about this on as “dsohigian”]

Generations Overview

A while back I created a slideshow that described the generations of the last 100 years. I used a chart in that presentation that helps visually represent the cycles, but I did not post the actual chart. So here it is in high resolution PDF. You can watch this slideshow to fully understand the chart:

How Generations Predict the Future

View more presentations from dsohigian. (tags: millenials silent)

The X Community

After 42 years making it (mainly) on my own, I am starting to consider the wider view of community. I have been doing research on generations recently that has expanded my understanding of my own generation’s role in history. If you are a Gen-X’er (born 1961-1980), maybe some of this will ring true for you.

Growing up in the 1970’s and 1980’s it was clear that kids were not exactly a top priority in society. The string of movies about children who were terrifying (from Rosemary’s Baby to Halloween to The Omen and many more in between) set the mood for this period, when adult focus was on adult issues. Although many parents strove to provide a happy home-life, the expectation for children was that they needed to figure it out for themselves; Because, after all, out there in the “real-world” no one was going to help you make it when you grew up.

This rang true in my childhood. I was often left to my own devices, expected to play independently and just figure things out. My parents were busy with work and self-discovery, and although they set an example of looking inward, the instructions on how to go about living life were lacking. Although I can’t ever remember a time I really missed this guidance, it is another hallmark of Generation-X . Taught from an early age to figure it out on our own, we generally do just that.

This was a time of adult’s problems and issues. One example that comes to mind was the treatment of one of my hometown’s primary school teachers. I can’t remember if he was openly gay or if someone just came up with “proof”, but there was a huge debate in town and many parents were involved. My Mom was a friend of the teacher (and still is, I believe) and supported him strongly at PTA meetings and other community debates. I don’t even clearly remember how things ended up (I know he got out of teaching eventually). However the energy expended on this issue was clearly about “the kids” rather than adult rights and adult choice.

I was speaking recently to a Boomer aged friend of mine, describing this childhood experience, and she said, “Yes, we all have to rebel against our parents”. I replied, “Well, no, I never rebelled against them. There just wasn’t enough there to rebel against”. I don’t resent them for it, but they didn’t force their values upon me strongly enough for me to bother resisting. But I, like most of my generation, was pretty much on my own.

Not that I didn’t dream of some utopia with a strong community. I grew up in a small town (Healdsburg, CA) where we knew most everyone in town. We lived way outside of the town (pop. 6000 at the time we moved there in 1973) a mile up a dirt road (and you can believe I will using that on my kids when they whine about having to bike to school). Given that we knew all the people on the long dirt road we lived what on sort of felt like a commune. It’s not that I lacked idealism growing up: I remember musing with friends about how we could start a community somewhere, away from all that mainstream crap.

By the time I was 19, I was ready to get out and see the world. I traveled to Europe for 6 months (much like my Mom had done when she was 19) but came back and realized that there was not necessarily any specific life-track waiting for me when I got returned. I made my way through Junior College and then on to UC and started a career and family. And although over this time I built an impressive professional and personal network, there was rarely a feeling of community in any of it.

There are a couple notable exceptions. One was a job I had with PeopleSoft. PeopleSoft was started by Dave Duffield and although I joined after he had left the company, it still retained much of his paternal spirit. During my four years at PeopleSoft I got a sense of the belonging that my Father often talked about during his 33 years with Hewlett-Packard. But by 2005, PeopleSoft had been acquired by Oracle (in a hostile takeover) and I moved on, my view on the (un)reliability of institutions unconsciously reinforced.

The other exception has been our kids’ schools. They have attended Waldorf Schools, mainly in Portland, OR, but more recently in Fair Oaks, CA. Our family started to see the seeds of real community at Cedarwood Waldorf School. We own a home right next door to the school, and participated regularly in the activities associated there. I served on the school board and we volunteered our time and money in many ways to help the school and its community. I think this experience was not particularly unique for many Gen-X’ers: Our kids lead us to our first real chance to form a community. Some of us respond well to this opportunity, others, poorly. The experience, for most of us, is at least unfamiliar if not downright foreign.

Since we moved down to Sacramento in August of 2008, we have been forced to adjust to a new community, although it is also formed around a Waldorf school (Sacramento Waldorf School, in Fair Oaks, CA). The similarities between these communities are more striking than the differences. The same Gen-X parent temperaments are all around: individualistic, demanding, talented, insightful and tough. We’re a pretty bristly bunch in general, and just being around our own kind does not change that. But we do seem to recognize the need to pull together for a common cause, especially an important one like the future of our children. The real challenge is figuring out how to keep the focus on the common good (“the children”) rather than the individual good (“my child”). That struggle, I think, typifies the Gen-X challenge of community. With so many years being ignored or alienated, it’s hard to trust that the community will really take care of everyone.

But there are glowing examples I have seen already in our short time here in Sacramento. I helped put together a site for our friends, the Nuttings, when their Son, Elias, was going through surgery in November ‘08. The Nuttings, like us, are Gen-X’ers, but they have a unique sense of community. Working on the site gave me a window into the possibilities of community, observing how they gave without expectation and received without debt.

The wonderful thing about this dynamic for Gen-X’ers is that we have a unique opportunity not granted to many generations. While our elders (the Boomers) got solid institutions and a strong social glue (which they rebelled against) and our kids (the Millennials) will grow up protected (perhaps over-protected) and build the new future, Gen-X’ers have a different path. Our opportunity is to create community without first-hand knowledge of what solid community feels like. It is to build bonds to things we did not know existed. It is to break down walls that we have never really acknowledged were there in the first place. It is to build up belief in the face of our own skepticism.

I have always had a soft-spot for that character in a story who was tough and pragmatic, but eventually realizes that it is real connections between people that matter most. Generation X was never granted that sense of community. We have to form it of our own will, and when we have, it will be an accomplishment.

Talkin’bout My Generation

I have been doing a fair bit of research into the effects of generations lately. The result of this research has been several charts and illustrations that give the big picture about where American generations (and society) are headed. This work is based primarily on the book “The Fourth Turning” by Neil Howe and William Strauss. The following slideshow (with accompanying audio) explains the first chart I created to explain the generational turnings.

How Generations Predict the Future from dsohigian