The Generational Gears of Change: DOGE and the Climax of the Fourth Turning

Welcome back to The Gen X Files! For regular readers, you know we often look at current events through the lens of Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, particularly their concept of the Fourth Turning. For those new to the discussion, you might want to check out my primer on generational theory.

Today, we’re diving into a significant event seemingly ripped from the pages of a potential Fourth Turning climax: the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) by President Donald Trump in January 2025, with Elon Musk playing a key role. This development, while specific to a moment in time, offers a fascinating illustration of the generational forces at play during what Strauss and Howe describe as a Crisis era.

As we’ve discussed before, the Fourth Turning is the final, winter-like stage of a roughly 80-year cycle, typically lasting around 20 years. Many theorists, including Strauss and Howe, suggest our current Fourth Turning began around 2008 with the market crash and is projected to continue until approximately 2025. This period is characterized by a breakdown of established institutions, a sense of crisis, and a potential for significant societal upheaval and transformation.

The emergence of an organization like DOGE in 2025 aligns with the theory’s prediction of a climax of the Crisis, a period where the world is consumed by events that define the next era. Think back to the last Crisis, the Great Depression and WWII. During such times, extraordinary measures and shifts in governance are not unexpected as societies grapple with pressing challenges and the need for fundamental change.

So, how do the generations factor into this? According to Strauss and Howe, each generation has a distinct archetype that shapes its behavior and its role in the saecular cycle. Let’s consider the currently active generations:

  • Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960): The “Prophet” archetype, known for their idealism and often strident views. During a Crisis, Boomers are ideally positioned as leaders. Their tendency towards strong ideals, even conflicting ones as we saw in their youth, could drive significant, sometimes disruptive, changes as they seek to shape the resolution of the Crisis. The establishment of DOGE, with its aim at “efficiency,” could be seen as a Boomer-driven attempt to impose a particular vision of how government should function during this critical time.
  • Generation X (born 1961-1981): The “Nomad” archetype, characterized by pragmatism, individualism, and a certain cynicism born from growing up amidst the unraveling of Boomer ideals. During a Crisis, Gen X is often in a “middle management” role, focused on practical solutions and survival. Their likely approach to DOGE would be pragmatic – focusing on whether it actually works and delivers tangible results, potentially setting aside partisan differences to find effective solutions. As the “repair generation” of the Fourth Turning, Gen X’ers will be crucial in implementing and adapting to any new structures that emerge from the Crisis.
  • Millennials (born 1982-2004): The “Hero” archetype, raised to be collaborative, idealistic, and civic-minded. In a Crisis, Millennials have the potential to build a new ideal, much like the GI Generation before them. Their reaction to DOGE will likely be tied to whether they perceive it as contributing to a better future and aligning with their values of working towards a common good. They will be looking for the “one ideal” to build towards as the Crisis resolves.

The establishment of DOGE in 2025, spearheaded by figures like Trump (a Boomer) and involving Musk ( a Gen X’er), suggests a confluence of generational forces reacting to the pressures of the Fourth Turning. This isn’t about whether DOGE is inherently good or bad, but rather about understanding it as a manifestation of the societal shifts and the striving for a new order that are characteristic of the climax of a Crisis.

The key takeaway from a generational perspective is that events like the creation of DOGE are not isolated incidents. They are part of a larger historical cycle, driven by the distinct characteristics and life stages of different generations as they respond to the unfolding Crisis. The way these generations interact and how their archetypal tendencies play out will ultimately shape the nature of the new era that emerges after the Fourth Turning.

What are your thoughts on DOGE in this generational context? Share your perspectives in the comments below!

Lost Generation Veteran Gets Respect

The world’s oldest man, Henry Allingham, died on Saturday in a nursing home. He was born in 1896, making him a member of the “Lost Generation” (born 1883-1900) that fought in WWI. The Lost Generation is similar in character Generation X (born 1961-1981) in that they were/are individualistic, pragmatic and tough. For example, Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown had this to say about Henry:

“He was a tremendous character, one of the last representatives of a generation of tremendous characters.”

This stands in stark contrast to what people would say about the generation following the Lost: the GI Generation (born 1901-1924) who are referred to as being heroes rather than “characters”. The GI’s are known as “The Greatest Generation” while the Lost Generation were the wild youth of the “Roaring 20’s” and although many fought in WWII, they were often the grizzled leaders (think Tom Hanks’ character in “Saving Private Ryan”) rather than the noble young warriors.

This bears a strong resemblance to today’s Generation X. We certainly are not looked up to as heroes and are often accused of being the cause of many of our current social ills. But I believe our generation will be instrumental in building a new foundation for our society. Although Millennials (born 1982-200?) will be fighting on the front lines and get most of the glory, Generation X’ers will be doing the dirty work and heavy lifting of change in our society.

I also think it’s likely that we will eventually get a grudging respect, as Henry and his generation now have. Fifty years from now we will be remembered as the tough elders who were willing to take the worst of these troubled times on the chin. We will be remembered as “characters”, which is fine with me.

For more on how the cycle of generations repeats, see the “Start Here” section of my blog.

Gen X Parent Tattoos

Generation X (born 1961-1981) are famous for their “I don’t give a damn” attitude. Many Gen X’ers sport tattoos proudly even now that they are moving into middle age. I know many parents with tattoos (including several who are pretty well covered in them) but there seems to be a new trend developing where Gen X aged parents are getting tattoos to honor their new babies:

When_Parents_Get_Tattoos_to_Honor_Baby from CafeMom

As D. Anderson at “My Generation X” pointed out in a recent post, the meaning of tattoos has changed over the years. Millennials(born 1982-200?) seem to get tattoos as a sign of social inclusion. Older Gen X’ers remember a time when tattoos were a sign of an amoral attitude (or at least rugged individualism), but this does not seem to be the case for the younger generation. I am not sure what Boomers (born 1943-1960) but I am sure that most Silents (born 1925-1942) think they are low-class or even degenerate. The last generation that really seemed to have a high regard for tattoos was the GI Generation(born 1901-1924) where tattoos among the war heroes were seen as a sign of honor and respect among peers. No surprise that the Millennials might be taking on some of the characteristics of the last “Hero” generation.

@guykawasaki: Generation X Blogs

A little while ago I posted an open letter to Guy Kawasaki asking him to add an Alltop group for Generations. @JenX67 added on with a suggestion for a Generation X(born 1961-1981) category (Boomers already have a category). Guy responded and asked that we put together a list of good Generation X blogs and he would make it happen. Here is our list (in no particular order):

If you need writeups on why each of these deserves to be on the alltop list of Gen X blogs, we can provide. But suffice to say that they are great examples of “Blogs about Gen X, by Gen X” and they do our generation proud!

If you need more than this list, let us know and we will dig up some more worth Generation X blogs.

Generation X Mourns Two Icons on the Same Day

Both Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson died today. They shared a common bond as wildly popular stars who had strange behavior and controversy later in their careers. But there was another bond as well. Although both of them were Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960), they were icons to the the generation that was young during the peak of their stardom: Generation X (born 1961-1981).
Many Generation X boys remember having this poster of Farrah up on their walls:

She was the pinup girl of our generation, and her feathered hair inspired many a (now terribly dated) hairdo at my Junior High and High School.

The cultural impact of MJ was also enormous. His style, his moves, his sheer entertaining ability were all admired by Gen X’ers during his peak. I clearly remember watching his performance during the Motown 25th anniversary celebration on television where he introduced the world to the moon walk and his one white glove:

His hits were enormous and his failings, later in life, just as large.
They were not Gen X’ers themselves (MJ was born in ’58, Farrah in ’47), but like all generations, our entertainment icons came from the generation before us (the Boomers in this case). So what does this mean for Generation X? First of all, it means we are getting older. Most of us are entering midlife and loss of these cultural references are a big reminder of that fact. The “new kids” coming up in entertainment we only hear about from our kids. And although many of the popular entertainers today are Gen X’ers, they don’t connect us with our youth.
It’s a sad day for Generation X. Sadder still because we realize that the arbiters of today’s youth culture (the Millennials, born 1982-200?) think of Farrah and Michael as some crazy old people.

Great post: Future Bright for Gen X

Another great post from JenX67 (Twitter: @JenJMcCollum) at with an optimistic point of view for Generation X (born 1961-1981). All of her points are excellent, and I particularly like this one:

We Will Answer An Historic Calling.
According to an article written by Alex Steffen, Peak Population and Generation X, the historic calling of Generation X is to save the planet. Human population peaked in the late 1960s, an event that will eventually be considered the most significant demographic in the history of humankind. Another peak awaits us. Prior to this second peak, Generation X will reach its professional prime. Thus, Generation X has an opportunity to make key leadership decisions in regard to the planet. These include creating the model for a zero-carbon, zero-waste civilization; empowering women through reproduction education; and sustainably raising the prospects for people, especially women, in developing countries.

Definitely worth a read:

http://www.jenx67.com/2009/06/eight-reasons-future-is-bright-for.html

Will We Miss the Boomer Generation Managers?

I found an interesting article about the differences between Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960) and Gen X’ers (born 1961-1981) as managers. It is written by Bob Filipczak, who is a Gen X’er.

My favorite quote:

The attitude that “organizations are interchangeable” is beginning to evolve into “employees are interchangeable, and thereby disposable.” If you thought corporations were ruthless during the 80s and 90s, you may be unpleasantly surprised by organizations under the stewardship of Generation X management.

Generation X: Bad Parents?

The over-scheduling, over-achieving and stressed-out parenting style that has been the hallmark of the Boomer (born 1943-1960) generation may finally be coming to a close now that Generation X (born 1961-1981) is fully taking over as parent of young children. There is a backlash developing in the form of the “Bad Parent” who isn’t willing to sacrifice everything to be the perfect Mom or Dad. And, like everything suggested by Generation X it was initially reviled but now starting to gain acceptance. This short (2.5 minute) video on CNN give a quick picture of the shift:

While they seem to understand that the parenting style so dominant when the Millennials (born 1982-200?) is coming to a close, there is little awareness of what comes next. The Boomers dove into parenting like everything else they did, with idealism and righteousness. By the time that Gen X’er started to have kids they got overwhelmed with the expectations (that were unrealistic, especially for Moms) and are finally starting to rebel.

All of this makes sense in generational terms, but the thing that is being missed is the parenting style that will dominate for the next 20 years. According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the next “cohort” or generation began a few years ago, perhaps in 2003, perhaps in 2005 (that will become clearer in time). The next generation (that they have named “Homelander” for now) will be raised very differently than the previous generation (the Millennials). The Homelanders will be raised during a massive crisis, much like the Great Depression and WWII that was faced 80+ years ago. This period of crisis is known as the “Fourth Turning” (the title of one of Strauss and Howe’s best, but  most difficult, books). We are at the start of the Crisis/Fourth Turning right now (they call it the Millennial Crisis) and it will likely last until 2025.

So how will Gen X’ers (and eventually Millennials) parent during this Fourth Turning? Probably in the same way that the Lost Generation (born 1883-1900) and GI Generation (born 1901-1924) did in the 1930’s: by protecting the children from the chaos in the world. This protection will go completely overboard in the upcoming years and the kids will end up in ridiculously cloistered environments (“They stroll in sidewalk versions of sport utility vehicles, learn to swim in U.V. protective full-body suits.” from a recent NYTimes article) and will probably turn out much like their grandparents, from the Silent Generation (born 1925-1942). As usual, most institutions (schools in particular) won’t be prepared for this shift and will assume what worked for the previous batch of kids (Millennials) will work with this bunch as well. The result will be a very challenging time for schools (and eventually companies) as these stifled, conformist and compliant kids move up through the years.

Of course, as I have mentioned before, their parents (Gen X’ers) will be entirely different (and more difficult) matter…

Sarah Palin of Generation X: No Jokes About My Kid!

What happens when a Boomer (born 1943-1960) makes fun of a Gen X’ers (born 1961-1981) kid? Watch what happened to (Boomer) David Letterman made jokes about (X’er) Sarah Palin’s daughter.

As Al Gore discovered a while back you can bash Gen X’ers, but DON’T mess with their kids.

7 Myths about Generation X

There a myths and misconceptions about every generation, and Generation X (born 1961-1981) is certainly no exception. From our early life growing up amid the social chaos of the 60’s, 70’s and early 80’s, we were the original “latch key kids” who had to learn survival skills early. Now entering midlife we have seen a lot of difficult times and they don’t seem to be getting much better. One of our greatest challenges is the negative reputation our generation has gotten over the years, much of it undeserved. Here are the top misconceptions about Generation X:

  1. We are slackers
  2. Although many of us may aspire to be slackers, most of us really never had that choice (or at least not for long). Most Gen X’ers had to make their own way very early with little help from parents or society, so yes, we had lots of dead-end jobs and 7 year University terms. But “slacking” is equal parts not giving a damn AND not working hard. We are excellent when it comes to effectiveness: we know how to focus on the most important tasks to get things done. I heard this joke in reference to the difference between Boomers and Generation X: A Boomer says “You are lazy, I put in over 60 hours a week at my job”, X’er replies, “Yeah, that’s a shame that you work so slowly”.

  3. We are selfish
  4. The size of the tribe that we care about may be smaller than for previous generations, but we definitely don’t care only about ourselves. For many Gen X’ers we put our families and close friends above our own personal needs. This can have it’s own negative side effects, like our over-protective nature as parents. Selfish is better than self-indulgent (Boomers), IMHO.

  5. We have no ideals
  6. We grew up surrounded by talk about ideals, so yeah, we are a bit tired of talking about them. Our generation wants to know how we can realistically change society for the better. We don’t see missing the ideal state as a failure and are willing to compromise ideology for practicality. But that does not mean we don’t have ideals.

  7. We are cynical
  8. Pragmatic is a better description, although we can be jaded at times. The biting cynical sarcasm of our generation’s comedians is one way we let off steam, but it does not mean we think the world is doomed. Boomers have a lock on pessimism, Millennials on optimism, so we just go with realism instead.

  9. We only care about money
  10. Again this is about our pragmatism. Maslow’s heirarchy of needs includes a bunch of things that require (at least in our society) some degree of financial stability. Much of our generation has never achieved that financial stability and so we do tend to focus on money. Some of us do forget that past a certain point that money is not going to bring more happiness, but after so many years of scrambling to make it on our own, it’s hard to find fault with that.

  11. We hate our parents
  12. Our parents are mostly Silents (born 1925-1942) and Boomers (born 1943-1960) and we do have a rocky relationship with both generations. But many of our parents were quite loving and caring, although they were focused on other things during our childhood. Most of us have no problem seeing our parents as equals and are willing to forgive them for their failings. There are plenty of examples of Boomers harshly judging their X’er children which, given how we were treated growing up, is particularly ironic.

  13. We don’t like Millennials (Gen Y)
  14. Yeah, we are the middle managers having to deal with these somewhat spoiled kids entering the workforce, but many of our children are Millennials (born 1982-200?) as well. It may take us a while to adjust to the style of Millennials, but we are more likely to understand what they are about than the Boomers who see them as the next Hero’s that will save our society (or the generation that will ruin it). Again our pragmatism is going to see us through: give us a little time with Millennials and we will figure out the way to get the best performance out of them. Barack Obama (a Gen X’er) certainly has.