Comments on: How Generations Predict the Crisis will last until 2025 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss Fri, 03 Feb 2012 21:53:42 +0000 hourly 1 By: Generation X: Bad Parents? | The Gen X Files http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-2891 Generation X: Bad Parents? | The Gen X Files Mon, 15 Jun 2009 21:09:08 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-2891 [...] All of this makes sense in generational terms, but the thing that is being missed is the parenting style that will dominate for the next 20 years. According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the next “cohort” or generation began a few years ago, perhaps in 2003, perhaps in 2005 (that will become clearer in time). The next generation (that they have named “Homelander” for now) will be raised very differently than the previous generation (the Millennials). The Homelanders will be raised during a massive crisis, much like the Great Depression and WWII that was faced 80+ years ago. This period of crisis is known as the “Fourth Turning” (the title of one of Strauss and Howe’s best, but  most difficult, books). We are at the start of the Crisis/Fourth Turning right now (they call it the Millennial Crisis) and it will likely last until 2025. [...] [...] All of this makes sense in generational terms, but the thing that is being missed is the parenting style that will dominate for the next 20 years. According to Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, the next “cohort” or generation began a few years ago, perhaps in 2003, perhaps in 2005 (that will become clearer in time). The next generation (that they have named “Homelander” for now) will be raised very differently than the previous generation (the Millennials). The Homelanders will be raised during a massive crisis, much like the Great Depression and WWII that was faced 80+ years ago. This period of crisis is known as the “Fourth Turning” (the title of one of Strauss and Howe’s best, but  most difficult, books). We are at the start of the Crisis/Fourth Turning right now (they call it the Millennial Crisis) and it will likely last until 2025. [...]

]]> By: Dave Sohigian http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-338 Dave Sohigian Sun, 29 Mar 2009 15:05:28 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-338 Lorenz, Thanks for your thoughtful comment. There seems to be lots of debate about when the crisis began, and I have not researched it much. I do agree that 9/11 was a very compelling event, but then again the world remained hopeful for the future for several years following that event. It did signal a major change in perception in the US, so perhaps it is the best demarcation. Time will tell. And I totally agree with your last paragraph about how we can't really forsee how different our world will be in 15 years. Awareness that big change is coming is useful, but what it looks like is very difficult. It is assured to be a particularly interesting ride. Thanks again for your comment. I will check out your <a href="http://newmediatheory.net/" rel="nofollow">New Media Theory blog</a>, it looks fascinating! Lorenz, Thanks for your thoughtful comment. There seems to be lots of debate about when the crisis began, and I have not researched it much. I do agree that 9/11 was a very compelling event, but then again the world remained hopeful for the future for several years following that event. It did signal a major change in perception in the US, so perhaps it is the best demarcation. Time will tell.
And I totally agree with your last paragraph about how we can’t really forsee how different our world will be in 15 years. Awareness that big change is coming is useful, but what it looks like is very difficult. It is assured to be a particularly interesting ride.
Thanks again for your comment. I will check out your New Media Theory blog, it looks fascinating!

]]> By: Lorenz Gude http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-336 Lorenz Gude Sun, 29 Mar 2009 14:40:06 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-336 I strongly agree that experience fading from living memory probably drives cycles. I was born in '42 and grew up hearing my economist father talk about the lessons of the depression. A good example of forgetting would be the idea that the depression was over by the late 30s. I think you will find few, particularly economists, who think that to be the case. The economy tanked again in 37 and at best things had eased by '39. You're right it was the middle of Winter - the depression continued and WW2 actually started in '39. My father's bleak winter view was that he deeply feared that the US would become totalitarian - either Fascist or Communist -because of the depression and war. I am genuinely surprised that you don't identify 9/11 as the beginning of the crisis and I didn't find anything nearly as compelling in 2005. But I will agree that the '2 month' reaction to 9/11 that Keith describes catches how the country has responded overall very well. It was quite different for me - in those first few days I realized I finally understood all the stories I'd heard from adults growing up describing their reaction to Pearl Harbor. Keith's comment made me realize I'm probably pretty atypical. I have read the war news daily since 9/11! I would argue that bin Laden symbolically struck at the economy as much as he did the US government and that it has been American economic self indulgence that has done far greater damage in the end. Too busy flipping mortgages and waging culture wars to notice that there was a real war going on? Maybe. I'd say that if the Islamists are as serious as I think they are they will manage another unignorable attack. If they never do then you are probably right to see 9/11 as a lesser event. As a pre boomer aged person I'm unlikely to see the end of this crisis. I have been thinking for some time that we have just begun to adjust to the end of the industrial era and that we will emerge into a multipolar world that operates by very different rules we don't yet understand. I have a lot of faith that when the going gets tough that gen x, y and millennials will all make a huge contribution by understanding the changed world that emerges. I am an American who has lived half my life outside the US and I can see something that it is harder for stay at home Americans to see. Given a clear problem Americans are a resourceful and creative people who often accomplish things wiser, more experienced people know are impossible. And I see you are already hard at work on it. I strongly agree that experience fading from living memory probably drives cycles. I was
born in ’42 and grew up hearing my economist father talk about the lessons of the depression.
A good example of forgetting would be the idea that the depression was over by the late 30s. I think you will find few, particularly economists, who think that to be the case. The economy tanked again in 37 and at best things had eased by ’39. You’re right it was the middle of
Winter – the depression continued and WW2 actually started in ’39. My father’s bleak winter view was that he deeply feared that the US would become totalitarian – either Fascist or Communist -because of the depression and war. I am genuinely surprised that you don’t identify 9/11 as the beginning of the crisis and I didn’t find anything nearly as compelling in 2005. But I will agree that the ’2 month’ reaction to 9/11 that Keith describes catches how the country has responded overall very well. It was quite different for me – in those first few days
I realized I finally understood all the stories I’d heard from adults growing up describing their reaction to Pearl Harbor. Keith’s comment made me realize I’m probably pretty atypical. I have read the war news daily since 9/11! I would argue that bin Laden symbolically struck at the economy as much as he did the US government and that it has been American economic self indulgence that has done far greater damage in the end. Too busy flipping mortgages and waging culture wars to notice that there was a real war going on? Maybe. I’d say that if the Islamists are as serious as I think they are they will manage another unignorable attack. If
they never do then you are probably right to see 9/11 as a lesser event. As a pre boomer aged person I’m unlikely to see the end of this crisis. I have been thinking for some time that we have just begun to adjust to the end of the industrial era and that we will emerge into a multipolar world that operates by very different rules we don’t yet understand. I have a lot of faith that when the going gets tough that gen x, y and millennials will all make a huge contribution by understanding the changed world that emerges. I am an American who has lived half my life outside the US and I can see something that it is harder for stay at home Americans to see. Given a clear problem Americans are a resourceful and creative people
who often accomplish things wiser, more experienced people know are impossible. And I see you are already hard at work on it.

]]> By: Dave Sohigian http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-202 Dave Sohigian Sat, 14 Mar 2009 23:04:17 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-202 @keith, I agree that 9/11 was probably not the start of the crisis, but it was such a big deal that it sure looked like a turning point. We may need more time to really tell when it started, but it's pretty clear we are in it now for sure! Thanks for your comment. @keith, I agree that 9/11 was probably not the start of the crisis, but it was such a big deal that it sure looked like a turning point. We may need more time to really tell when it started, but it’s pretty clear we are in it now for sure! Thanks for your comment.

]]> By: Keith http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-200 Keith Sat, 14 Mar 2009 21:56:33 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-200 Really interesting site. Puts the whole S&H theories in simple laymans terms. I'm an X/Millenial cusper (12/24/81), and I'd definitely refer people to this. I don't consider 9/11 the start of the crisis. As I recall, we ran around being uber patriotic and scared for a couple of months, until the president told us to go shopping. Then we walked into a war that most people were gung-ho about...until they realized it was going to take longer than the length of the average Terminator movie to finish (3rd turning wars: Enthusiasm high, patience low). I think our reaction to it was very 3rd Turning, and whatever cohesive effects it had on society were short lived. That doesn't mean a decent case can't be made for it, but I actually side with Katrina or the bank bailouts as the real beginning of the crisis. Really interesting site. Puts the whole S&H theories in simple laymans terms. I’m an X/Millenial cusper (12/24/81), and I’d definitely refer people to this.

I don’t consider 9/11 the start of the crisis. As I recall, we ran around being uber patriotic and scared for a couple of months, until the president told us to go shopping. Then we walked into a war that most people were gung-ho about…until they realized it was going to take longer than the length of the average Terminator movie to finish (3rd turning wars: Enthusiasm high, patience low). I think our reaction to it was very 3rd Turning, and whatever cohesive effects it had on society were short lived. That doesn’t mean a decent case can’t be made for it, but I actually side with Katrina or the bank bailouts as the real beginning of the crisis.

]]> By: The Gen X Files » Blog Archive » The Long Turning http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-138 The Gen X Files » Blog Archive » The Long Turning Thu, 05 Mar 2009 18:11:43 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-138 [...] described by Howe and Strauss is that they point to cycles within cycles. As I mentioned in my previous post, they suggest that there are four “turnings” or parts of a cycle related to [...] [...] described by Howe and Strauss is that they point to cycles within cycles. As I mentioned in my previous post, they suggest that there are four “turnings” or parts of a cycle related to [...]

]]> By: Matthew E http://www.thegenxfiles.com/2009/03/04/how-generations-predict-the-crisis-will-last-until-2025/comment-page-1/#comment-136 Matthew E Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:19:48 +0000 http://www.thegenxfiles.com/?p=476#comment-136 I'm using slightly different dates than you are: I've got the High running from '46 through '63 (17 years), the Awakening from '64 to '84 (21 years), and the Unraveling from '84 to '01 (17 years). So *if* 9/11 kicked off the Crisis, and *if* the cycle has been tightening up a little, both of which are plausible though unproven, then the Crisis *could* be over and done with before 2020. I’m using slightly different dates than you are: I’ve got the High running from ’46 through ’63 (17 years), the Awakening from ’64 to ’84 (21 years), and the Unraveling from ’84 to ’01 (17 years). So *if* 9/11 kicked off the Crisis, and *if* the cycle has been tightening up a little, both of which are plausible though unproven, then the Crisis *could* be over and done with before 2020.

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